Continued weak global trade In particular, the following aspects point to continued weak global trade going forward: slower economic growth in China and the realignment of the Chinese economy towards more domestic consumption, the probable plateau in the development of global value chains, the faltering status of multilateral trade liberalisationRead More →
Bitcoin Back in 1924, John Maynard Keynes postulated that a “master-economist must possess a rare combination of gifts. He must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher – to some degree.” And this is certainly not sufficient to really understand bitcoin. A “master cryptocurrency economist” will need specialist knowledge about both softwareRead More →
Global openness to fall to 29% in 2015 The lingering weakness in global trade since 2012 caused global openness to fall to 29% in 2015. Our analyses to date suggest that global trade is likely to continue posting anaemic development in the years ahead, as the elasticity of international tradeRead More →
Poor outlook for global trade Poor outlook for global trade means weak impetus for the logistics sector The pace of the international flow of goods is a deciding factor in the development of the logistics sector. Over the long term, global trade has typically outperformed the global economy. Global tradeRead More →
Less than stellar growth In this climate, it is not surprising that the German logistics sector has also been mired in less than stellar growth for years now. Nominal turnover in the sector merely increased by slightly over 1% a year between 2012 and 2015. As a result, average growthRead More →
Benefits of the euro Up to now, the benefits of the euro have outweighed the drawbacks for Germany. However, in the event of a total breakdown of the eurozone, the current contingent liabilities arising from the ESM, ESFS, ECB government bond purchases and TARGET2 balances would materialise, forcing Germany toRead More →
Low global trade growth Low global trade growth goes hand in hand with a weak momentum in the global flow of transportation. Growth rate in international seaborne trade fell each year between 2012 and 2015. Growth came in at just 2% in 2015 – its slowest pace since 2009, aRead More →
.Logistics: weak environment– no trend reversal in sight Over the next three to five years, global trade is likely to grow only at or around the same pace as global GDP. This structurally weaker momentum will be reflected in slow growth in the global and regional flow of goods, asRead More →
Uninspired arrangement of one party No answer to the challenges ahead This coalition feels to us like an uninspired arrangement of one party where “ownership” of the chancellery is the number one priority for which if push comes to shove everything else can be sacrificed, while the other party justRead More →
Has experienced several highs and lows However, the German economy has experienced several highs and lows in the recent past. At the start of the new millennium, adverse developments resulting from reunification threatened to derail the country’s progress and prompted Germany to be dubbed ‘the sick man of Europe’ byRead More →
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