Apart from specific developments in the financial industry, the macroeconomic
and political environment will also determine who wins the Brexit race.
Thanks to the Eurostar rail service, Paris is very well connected to London. In addition,
following the UK’s exit, Paris will be the EU’s only global metropolis with a very
high quality of life. By contrast, France’s high income tax rates of up to 75% are
a deterrent, and according to TOEFL test scores, English language skills are not
as strong as in other continental European countries. The decisive argument
against Paris could also be investors’ fears of jumping out of a Brexit pan and
into a Frexit fire. The euro-sceptical Front National has become a serious
competitor for the socialist and conservative parties in the presidential elections
that will take place in May 2017. The party leader Marine Le Pen is happy to be
referred to as “Madame Frexit”. Amsterdam’s chances are also reduced by the
possibility of a referendum on whether the Netherlands should leave the EU
The nationalist Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) is not only striving to
achieve a Nexit, but also regularly tops the polls for the parliamentary elections
that will take place in March 2017.