An official coalition
Amongst the three options for cooperation debated within the SPD an official
coalition seem to be the most likely. Given the parties’ different political
approaches with regard to various issues, compromises across the particular
issues in the form of the usual horse trading seem to be necessary for an
agreement. Therefore, a partial cooperation focussing only on one or two major
issues, such as European policy, as proposed by SPD leader Schulz seems to
be hardly feasible.
German politics would probably be different if Chancellor Merkel had to lead a
minority government, especially one not based on a (formal) SPD toleration.
Such a government could try to secure a changing parliamentary majority for
each of its projects. Thus, its policy would probably reflect influences from the
Greens and the FDP (Liberals), too. If new elections were held the resulting
shape of the German political landscape would be even less predictable. Albeit
the actors involved seem to dislike this option even more than a renewed Groko,
new elections cannot be ruled out – at least not as long as politicians from both
camps stress positions that are obviously unacceptable for the other side,
respectively.
Amongst the Germans new elections are as unpopular as a
CDU/CSU minority government (refusal rate 56%, respectively;
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen).
EU Forecast
euf:ba18h:116/nws-01