Stagnation of domestic demand in H2 2017 –
arguably only a breather
— Growth reached 0.6% qoq in Q4 2017, accompanied by sentiment
indicators at record highs and supported by strong order intake (3.5% qoq
and 1.9% qoq excl. Big tickets). In the second half of 2017, however, final
domestic demand nearly stagnated, following a spectacular H1. Likewise,
sentiment indicators in February as well as hard data for January
— Current assessment and expectations with regard to exports have also
deteriorated somewhat since the end of 2017, probably in reaction to the
sharp appreciation of the euro.
— We take this as confirmation of our expectation that growth momentum is
past its peak, but – given the still-favourable economic environment –
consider a substantial slow-down of the German economy as unlikely.