Exit from the reform path would be the wrong signal for Europe
A renewed Groko would certainly be no love affair – neither for the parties
involved nor the German public. The Germans have disapproved of the
wavering course in government formation, so far, and they still have to get used
to the prospect of another CDU/CSU-SPD coalition.
According to surveys
(Infratest dimap) the approval rate is increasing only slightly and still markedly
below 50%, at present. It still remains to be seen, whether Germany and Europe
would benefit from such an alliance. Currently the signs are inconsistent. Both,
the CDU/CSU and the SPD, want to reform the EU and to modernise Germany.
But they often seem to rely on paternalistic approaches, such as subsidies and
transfers. Market-orientated solutions, i.e. Deregulation and increased flexibility,
seem to play a minor role only.
Especially, with regard to social policy and to labour market policy issues, the
risk is that a renewed Groko would depart from the past decade’s reform path
even more than its predecessor. This would jeopardise the favourable
development of the German economy. It would also send the wrong signal to
the reform-minded European partner countries.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18h:125/nws-01