These reasons have played a decisive role in the shortage of housing in and
Consequently, in the current property cycle, the housing
shortage, defined as the ratio of households to the number of homes available,
has increased every year. The most recent figures available from the City of
Frankfurt show a housing shortage of around 30,000 homes in 2014. We expect
that this figure will have probably continued to increase in 2015 and 2016; our
rather conservative projections here are a shortage of 33,000 homes for 2015
and 36,000 for 2016.
As the shortage of housing has increased steadily since
2009, reducing the demand overhang will take a number of years, possibly even
beyond the end of this decade.
This assessment is also based on the
assumption that the housing shortage in Frankfurt, as in other German cities, is
of a structural, as opposed to an economic nature.