National sensitivities related to budget

The three scenarios illustrate the national sensitivities related to budget
adjustment in the next Multiannual Financial Framework, either through cuts on
the spending or increases on the cost side. They are anything but exhaustive.
The assumption of symmetric cost cuts or payment increases among members
is certainly an oversimplification but might not be such an unrealistic outcome as
countries on both the contributing and receiving end of the budget can be
expected to defend their stakes fiercely.

But other combinations of cost cuts and
payment increases are equally possible as well. Revenues would not
necessarily have to come from national contributions alone – the Commission
has a strong interest in strengthening the EU’s own resources in the budget.
However, in many cases this might just result in a transfer of existing national
resources to the EU level (e.g. In case of emission trading revenues or from a
consolidated corporate tax base) and can therefore be expected to meet
resistance among several members.