Political reality does not follow coalition agreements. This grand coalition will
need to show its capacity to govern not only in implementing the agreement
but also beyond. It might become difficult for Merkel to manage a
government with key portfolios held by SPD members or the defiant former
CSU boss Seehofer.
Centrifugal forces could erupt this year already in the
run-up to two important state elections, if Groko parties fear suffering further
losses through opposition parties on both sides of the political spectrum.
SPD members likely to accept the draft coalition treaty
As expected, CDU/CSU and SPD have struck a coalition agreement. This brings
the four-month deadlock following the inconclusive German federal elections
closer to its end. The last hurdle to Merkel’s re-election is now the SPD
It will start in the next few days and take until early March,
as 463,700 members will vote by mail only after the SPD has provided all of
them with a hard copy of the draft coalition treaty.