Fiscal impulse has been largely discounted
The resulting fiscal impulse has been largely discounted in our 2.3% GDP
forecast for this year. The lengthy government formation will probably shift the
implementation more into 2019 than we initially expected, i.e. Potential upside
risks could be more relevant with regard to our 2019 forecast (1.8%).
However, given scarcity of resources in particular in the construction sector and the
potential windfall gains likely to result from many of the planned subsidies, a
substantial part of the impulse could end up in higher prices.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18.d:141/nws-01