Over the next three to five years, global trade is likely to grow only at or around
the same pace as global GDP.
This structurally weaker momentum will be
reflected in slow growth in the global and regional flow of goods, as has already
been the case in recent years. In its role as an open, export-oriented economy,
Germany – and the German logistics sector in particular – will continue to feel
the sting of this development. At a nominal average of 2% a year, turnover
growth in the sector is likely to be below the long-term average in the years
Global openness – the share of trade in global GDP – increased from just over
10% in the mid-1990s to more than 30% in 2008. In the wake of the 2008/09
global recession, global trade suffered a setback. Openness fell to around 27%
in 2009. Due to the lingering weakness in global trade since 2012, global
openness had yet to return to above 29% in 2015.
We expect global trade to remain anaemic in the years to come.