The global tanker market will be dominated by opposing factors in 2016 and 2017.
Despite relatively low prices and geopolitical risks, the supply of oil is
likely to remain high. At the same time, some (unconventional) sources will
remain under pressure in view of the price situation. In terms of demand, many
emerging countries will probably continue importing more oil. For the time being,
oil imports could also increase in the US – at least as long as oil prices remain
relatively low and few new sources within the country are exploited. However, it
remains to be seen whether the effect of stockpiling (such as in China) has as
much of an impact as in 2015. In addition, global economic growth remains
weak. Weather conditions in the upcoming winter season in the northern
hemisphere will also have an effect on oil demand, of course. According to our
forecast, international crude oil trading, which sets the course for transport
activities with the corresponding tankers, will probably grow slower in 2016 and
2017 than in 2015.
In late September, the announcement by OPEC members
that they would decrease production caused prices to rise to above USD 50 per
barrel (Brent), nearly double the low for the year recorded in January 2016.