In light of weak global trade and the aforementioned sluggish growth in the
movement of goods at international and national level, it should come as no
surprise that the German logistics sector has also been seeing sluggish growth
for some time now.
Nominal turnover in the sector increased by only slightly
over 1% a year between 2012 and 2015. As a result, the industry fared worse
than the overall business services sector in the same period (2.6% a year). In
addition, average growth in the transportation and storage sector was
significantly lower than it was between 2003 and 2008 (4.6% a year). Foreign
trade appears unlikely to provide much in the way of momentum for the German
logistics industry also in 2016 and 2017.
According to our forecast, exports and
imports will see growth substantially below the long-term average over the
course of both years.