There are no real grounds for this claim, neither in the short nor in the long term.
In the short term, high entry hurdles to the bitcoin universe will prevent mass
adoption of the cryptocurrency.
In particular, the complex handling will keep
people from using the currency: users need to open an account with a bitcoin
exchange, set up a wallet and take responsibility for keeping their access codes
secret. The latter in particular, i.e. The fact that users have to keep their access
codes secret themselves and cannot rely on support by a bank or on receiving
an automatic replacement for a lost code (as in the case of PINs or TANs), will
prevent widespread adoption.
Many people reject unregulated, non-state
payment means such as cryptocurrencies on principle. And the number of
merchants who accept bitcoin payments will be slow to rise at best. If we
compare bitcoin adoption to internet adoption, we are probably at the beginning
of the 1990s right now.
Thus, despite the current hype, bitcoin will remain a
marginal phenomenon for some time to come.
Bitcoin unlikely to emerge as predominant means of payment in
the foreseeable future Bitcoin will remain only one of many
means of transaction and investment in the coming years, too.
If the US dollar was no longer used as a global reserve
currency, bitcoin might replace other national currencies to some extent, too.
This would raise a host of new questions, however. Would there be demands to
switch to bitcoin for private-sector contracts, for example work contracts? If so,
at what exchange rate? What would a switch to bitcoin mean for government
budgets? What effect might a global, decentralised currency have on taxation?
These questions touch upon fundamental issues, which is why a smooth
changeover to bitcoin as a predominant means of payment is unlikely. While
some bitcoin enthusiasts may be currently regarding the cryptocurrency as the
answer to their libertarian dreams, they might soon find that these dreams
become nightmares in reality.
In all probability, the majority of the global
population would refuse to use bitcoin so that politicians would be forced to
adopt strict regulation early on. The bitcoin revolution would devour its own