Vacancy rate dropped only marginally
As the demand overhang declined, the
vacancy rate dropped only marginally, from an already low 0.7% in 2010 – 2014
to 0.6% in 2015. These developments are unusual for a German metropolitan
area. Hamburg plans to build more than 10,000 new residential units each year,
i.e. More than 1% of the total number of existing residential units (c. 940,000).
While this target appears ambitious in view of the fact that the population is
virtually stagnating, it seems to be the only way to keep rent and price growth at
an acceptable level in the current cycle. New construction is the only way to
prevent massive overvaluations and the risk of a house price bubble. The long-
term success of Hamburg’s policy will depend on whether the administration can
prevent oversupply and the resultant, significant price declines. Compared to
other metropolitan areas, Hamburg is thus faced with a luxury problem.
EU Forecast
euf:ba.18.j:164/nws-01