2017 in review: Europe and Germany provided the biggest surprises
The global economy did better in 2017 than expected a year ago. At 3.7%,
global growth looks set to be roughly 1⁄2 of a pp stronger than in 2016 and more
than 1⁄4 of a pp higher than forecast at the beginning of 2017.
The euro area and
Germany in particular surprised to the upside. Growth in the euro area will
probably come in at 2.3% for 2017 as a whole, i.e. 1 pp above our initial
forecast. And at 2.3%, the rate for Germany looks set to be more than twice as
high as anticipated at the beginning of the year (DB forecast: 1.1%; consensus:
Our growth forecast for the US proved quite accurate (2.3%; forecast:
2.4%) even though the tax reform plans of the new administration were
considerably delayed. GDP growth in the other major industrial countries was
largely in line with the expectations. The same applies to the emerging markets,
where the recovery picked up speed.
In China, the expected structural
slowdown seems to have been interrupted, at least if we look at the average
growth rate for 2017 (6.8%; our forecast: 6.5%).