About the gap
How to address the post-Brexit budget shortfall will be on top of the agenda in
upcoming EU budget negotiations. It will be closely linked to the discussion
about distribution of costs and receipts within the budget, both between member
states and policies.
Without further adjustments, compensating for the UK
shortfall based on the 2014-2020 MFF would lift the ratio of total own resources
– national contributions and EU own resources – to 1.1% of GNI from previously
below 1.0%. This increase is explained by the fact that the UK’s contribution to
EU28’s GNI (16% in 2014-16) is much larger than its 7% net contribution to the
EU28 budget. While the binding upper limit for the EU budget (total own
resources) is set at 1.2% of GNI, net contributors have been eager to keep it at
1% over the previous multiannual frameworks.
Any post-Brexit increase towards
that ceiling, as recently also raised by the Commission, would therefore certainly
be subject to heated debates and calls for more efficient spending.
EU Forecast
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