Asset Allocation
With equities pricing in a 50% probability of an imminent recession which we
view as highly unlikely and the rates market continuing to disbelieve that the
Fed would go through with its planned normalization we share our asset
allocation views.
Themes:
Bigger and longer but still just a pullback: not reading too much into it
Late cycle with a twist: Growth is unusually strong
How high will inflation go?
The bond-equity correlation typically falls when inflation rises or the Fed is
tightening
The dominos that did not fall: positioning in oil and the dollar
markets
EU Forecast
euf:b.a18b:66/nws-01