German exports are moving towards their all-time highs
Sentiment indicators for German exports are moving towards their all-time
highs, sometimes at considerable speed. The PMIs and the ifo export
expectations paint a very favourable picture for the coming months. World-wide
optimism should continue to limit the impact of the numerous global crises.
As a result, the current export momentum will probably remain in place far into 2018.
The main risk is probably the political uncertainty surrounding the Brexit
negotiations between the UK and the EU. In case of a “hard” Brexit, not only
exports to the UK itself, but shipments to other western European countries will
probably suffer. At the same time, the increasingly likely adoption of the US tax
reform is an upside risk for 2018. Higher corporate earnings might result in
additional demand.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18h:111/nws-01