National impact can still differ substantially
However, the national impact can still differ substantially. For many net
recipients from the EU budget, structural and investment funds account for a
substantial share of public investment (e.g. Around 70% in Portugal and around
50% in Poland from 2015-2017). For these countries, an 8% or EUR 4 bn cut on
regional policy would be non-negligible. EUR 5 bn cuts on agricultural policy
would – in absolute terms – mainly affect Western and Southern European
countries (France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Greece and Ireland).
Relative to the size of their economies, also here the impact would be much
larger in Eastern European members as well as Greece. Net contributions to the
budget would go up most for France, Germany and Italy at around EUR 1 bn
annually while Poland and Spain would lose around EUR 1 bn in net receipts.
As a share of GNI, the impact would be strongest in Bulgaria and Hungary at
0.4%, compared to only a fraction in Germany (0.03%) and France (0.05%).
EU Forecast
euf:ba18h:178/nws-01