About two and a half years after the peak of the refugee crisis, the relevant EU
institutions are about to decide on new major rules concerning the reception and
treatment of asylum seekers, as well as the allocation of asylum applications
among member states.
Although the number of applications in 2017 (0.65 m)
nearly halved compared to the peaks in 2015 (1.26 m) and 2016 (1.21 m), the
issues are amongst the most politically charged topics on the agenda in
Brussels. 1 Important elements of the planned reforms are the subject of much
debate among the member countries. The ongoing debates could become a
severe burden for the EU and, in particular, widen the differences between the
Western and the Central European member states. Among EU citizens, too,
immigration of people from outside the EU predominantly evokes a negative
feeling. Furthermore, the refugee crisis is seen as one of the reasons driving the
ascent of populist parties, such as in Italy recently.
The migrants, however, are not a homogeneous group with regard to the
asylum regulations. Besides people in need of (international) protection, many
people have immigrated for economic reasons (labour and/or poverty migration).
It can be difficult to differentiate between these motives, as high numbers of
lawsuits concerning the formal first-time rejection of asylum applications
demonstrate. Even with regard to accepted applicants, it is often unclear
whether the respective immigrants will stay in the host country temporarily or for
the long term.
What is more, the integration of refugees has proved to be a more
challenging task than previously expected.
EU Forecast
euf:ba1.8i:78/nws-01