The GBP decline
The GBP decline, this effect will only partly offset the exchange
rate-driven price reduction in chemical products. Particularly in
the broad group of base chemicals, which account for nearly
half of German exports, price is often the crucial selling point.
Exports to the UK are therefore expected to decline. In parallel,
imports from the UK – which were worth EUR 4. 2bn in 2015
and which make up 5. 5% of total sector exports – could in-
crease. The background to this is the very similar structure of
goods imported from, and exported to the UK.
Protracted negotiations with the EU in the years ahead on the
future rules will perpetuate a state of uncertainty, resulting in a
negative impact on private investment and consumption, and
lower economic growth in the United Kingdom. The British
pound will thus not only come under more pressure, but de-
mand for chemical products, e. G. As inputs for the manufactur-
ing industry, will also generally decline.
The first signs of a slowdown in the British economy are al-
ready evident. Industry in Germany and the EU will also be af-
fected by the downward trend. Until such time as a new and
clear basis can be established for trade and economic relation-
ships, the long-term impact on trade and production sites of
restrained corporate investment will be difficult to gauge.
EU Forecast
euf:b.a18b:201/nws-01