Timeline for reforms is very likely to be pushed back
The Commission’s timeline for reforms is very likely to be pushed back and it is
questionable whether agreement on the bulk of reforms can be found, as
planned, before a new Commission is appointed in 2019. But even if it appears
premature, the publication of their detailed reform package might still not be
entirely mistimed. The Commission has the right of legislative initiative but next
to providing direction is probably equally interested in keeping alive the debate
and momentum for EA reforms that gained strength after the French elections
earlier this year.
The question remains whether the current roadmap to EMU integration is
capable of addressing the identified shortcomings of the EMU. Measures that
lead to the completion of banking/capital markets union, such as the fiscal
backstop for the SRF, might be sensible but require substantial risk-reduction in
national banking sectors ex ante to be accepted by all member states. Some of
the proposed reforms such as integrating the Fiscal Compact into EU law are
warranted under the aspect of legal consistency and avoidance of duplication.
For other proposals, including the legal status of the ESM or future EMF, the
argumentation with respect to democratic accountability and financial stability is
much weaker
EU Forecast
euf:ba.18.j:140/nws-01