Even taking account of the pressure to cut costs, which is
weighing on almost all the European healthcare systems, the do-
mestic market in the UK is likely to continue to grow, and de-
mand will still be largely covered by imports.
Afurther increase in
the proportion of generics – which will growfrom around 23% to
nearly 30%in the year 2020 – could lead to a shift in imports. Ex-
perience shows that demand for patent-protected original drugs
also tends to be less price-elastic given the usually limited alterna-
tives.
The British market plays an important role for innovation and
regulation. If the EMAwere to relocate fromLondon, British influ-
ence on the regulatory environment could decline. Alignment with
the EU would be possible, although the country’ s own regulatory
hurdles could make market access more difficult for imported
drugs.
It is difficult to gauge at the moment how close the links be-
tween the Ukand the European Union will be after Brexit. Aloss of
European research funding would be disadvantageous for the UK
in terms of innovative competition.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18.c:7/nws-01