The way ahead
With all the uncertainty about the future, we estimate that there will be significantly fewer banks
with a viable business model in the next 10 to 15 years. Depending on the speed of change,
we expect the number of banks to shrink from currently around 1,600 to as few as 300 in the
evolution and 150 in the disruption scenario.
Besides making choices for a clear strategic positioning, banks will need to utilise two key levers:
First, more cultural flexibility, ranging from training staff more continuously to performing
better in high stakes client situations. Second, banks will need to create an innovation-friendly
environment by fundamentally overhauling their attitude and approach toward change and the
ability to innovate. While banks do not tend to be the ideal hotbeds for innovation (think stability
and risk aversion), there are several factors that play in their favour, e.g. The innovation mind set
of the broader German economy.
Much will depend on the ability of bank executives to move away from their comfort zone
of traditional “cost reduction” or “growth strategy” programmes and become more nimble
and audacious in how they change their bank.