DRIVERS OF CHANGE –
NOT ONLY FOR BANKS
The big changes of today do not stop short of the German banking market. The underlying
drivers can be clearly identified: technology and innovation, customer behaviour and demand,
politics and regulations as well as macro-economic and socio-economic developments shape
the future for the banks.
For each of these drivers of change (see table), a spectrum of possible developments can be
defined: at one end of the spectrum, an evolutionary scenario with moderate, gradual changes
compared to the status quo is defined; at the other end, a disruption scenario with rapid develop-
ments is posing substantial challenges to banks. In the evolution scenario, new approaches
(e.g. Robo advice) and infrastructure solutions (e.g. Cloud services, artificial intelligence) will
establish themselves as alternative options in certain, clearly defined areas. Digital technologies
in the workplace are starting to evolve at a manageable pace and with some preparation time
In the disruption scenario, however, drivers and market structure (e.g. Establishment
of comparison portals as pivotal customer interfaces) change much faster than in the evolution
scenario: In this scenario, taking a “business as usual” approach or adapting to changes at a too
slow pace bears enormous risks for incumbents.
Over the next 10 to 15 years, we expect either a disruption or an evolutionary scenario. Despite
substantial differences between the two scenarios, both scenarios have in common that growing
modularisation will also affect the financial services industry.