Betwixt and between: The dilemma of the half-hearted
The illustrated models offer the opportunity for a sustainable positioning. However, even in the
slow-paced evolution scenario, the risk of further eroding profitability remains for those local
banks that won’t succeed in either making themselves indispensable to local ecosystems or in
reducing their portfolio to basic services.
These banks will eventually fall victim to the continued
consolidation within their sectors (“victims of consolidation”). Similarly, multi-regional banks
that won’t develop any significant strengths with regards to clients or products will at some
point disappear from the banking landscape owed to increased competition and further eroding
profitability (“the undecided”).
However, it is unclear whether German banks will find themselves in the rather comfortable
setting of a slow and manageable evolution: There are indications that banks will find themselves
in a disruption scenario and will have to adapt to an increasingly fast-moving ecosystem.