Colombia is another country to watch.
While a recovery depends upon policy stimulus,
growth appears to have bottomed out and the
recent resilience in oil prices has helped.
true that corporates and households are
postponing credit and investment decisions.
However, after elections in the first half of 2018,
this uncertainty should fade. One event to watch
is the sale of the first of eight concessions of the
4G infrastructure programme which will involve
$4.6bn in investment.
On top of that, if the government stimulates the
economy further benefts could accrue.
The good news for emerging markets is
that conditions in 2018 are likely to remain
supportive of productivity growth, the key driver
of long-term outperformance.
Yet, as emerging
markets retain a capital dependency on
developed markets, the window for carrying out
these reforms is out of their control and may
close with the next developed market slowdown.
Those countries that take advantage of the
current opportunities will be the ones that
outperform over the coming decades.