Q4 2017 GDP details – foreign trade the key driver
Slowing only moderately compared to Q3, German growth in the final quarter of
2017 was robust at 0.6% qoq. This was slightly above our expectations of 0.5%.
Moreover, the Federal Statistical Office reported that the result for the third
quarter was revised to 0.7% (0.8%) qoq.
The key driver of Q4 growth was foreign trade, which contributed 0.5 percentage
points to growth. Led by strong global growth, the 2.7% qoq rise in exports was
astounding, marking the strongest quarter-over-quarter increase over the past 7
years.
The euro’s appreciation of roughly 10% against the USD (annual
comparison), on the other hand, was not yet leaving its negative imprint. At
2.0% qoq, imports also edged up visibly, with intermediate and consumer goods
being the main contributors, driven by strong dynamic momentum. Government
final consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% qoq and contributed the
remaining 0.1 percentage points to quarterly growth of 0.6%.
Household consumer expenditure remained stable at the previous quarter’s high level.
Whilst real retail sales inched up, thanks to strong online and mail-order
shopping, the consumers exercised restraint with respect to information and
communication technology. Gross fixed capital formation was flat on the
previous quarter. Whilst investment in machinery and equipment was up by
0.7% qoq, investment in construction again declined slightly by 0.4% qoq.
EU Forecast
euf:ba1.8i:127/nws-01