In terms of sizing the market, 3D sensing
modules for smartphones cost between $15-20
today, which suggests a massive opportunity
ahead for key suppliers.
When you consider that
adoption of 3D sensing technology could grow
from just three per cent today to 38 per cent in
2020, this implies good times ahead for key
suppliers to the Apple and Android ecosystems.
In fact, we estimate a $14bn aggregate
opportunity for suppliers by 2020, of which
$1.5bn will come from illumination (light sources
such as VCSELs), $2.3bn from micro-optics
hardware, $1.4bn from polymer lens hardware,
$4.7bn from semiconductors, and $3.6bn from
What is an investor to do? For now, the
safest suggestion from this discussion is to stick
with those who are already well positioned at
Apple. Because of Apple’s first-mover advantage
in a very complex area, other manufacturers will
struggle to match its AR experience.
The companies sitting tight in the Apple camp are
micro-optics frms such as AMS, illumination
firms such as Lumentum, polymer lens frms such
as Largan, semi-conductor frms such as Tong
Hsing, and assembly firms such as LG Innotek.