But the shortfall of the UK’s contribution will not only leave a substantial gap in
EU revenues – it could also have a significant distributional effect regarding the
cost sharing among the remaining EU27 members.
With the UK leaving, the payment share of all remaining members in the EU
budget will go up automatically. At the same time, the UK correction – a 66%
reduction on its net contributions to the EU budget currently amounting to
around EUR 6 bn annually will fall away. This discount for the UK is currently
financed through additional payments by the remaining EU countries based on
their GNI-share. But due to the complex framework of historically developed
further payment corrections or “rebates on the rebate” in the current framework,
member countries will be affected differently.
Under the current framework, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Austria –
considering their share in the EU budget payments already as too high – only
pay 25% of their normal share of the UK rebate. Additionally, there are one-off
GNI/VAT-based payment reductions for Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands,
Austria and Germany within the 2014-2020 MFF. If the Commission gets its will,
all these “rebates on the rebate” will be scrapped in the next budget framework.
Accordingly, countries which currently benefit from a reduction will have to carry
a higher share of the financial burden post-2020.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18h:167/nws-01