The SPD’s youth wing, strongly opposing a renewed Groko, has invited people
to (temporarily) become SPD members to participate in the members’ ballot and
to vote No.
According to press reports (FAZ, WDR), the SPD has registered
several thousand new members in the past few days. The relevant registration
deadline is February 6, though. Arithmetically the campaign’s impact should be
limited, as the SPD has 443,000 members (as of end-2017). In autumn 2013, in
a similar survey on the past Groko’s coalition treaty, the participation rate was
nearly 78%. Only in a close call might the newcomers tip the balance. Should
the membership ballot fail, Germany seems likely to go for new elections.
However, a positive member ballot result still seems the most likely scenario.
Given public sentiment and the critics’ campaign, though, the approval rate
should hardly be as convincing as in autumn 2013 when 76% of the participants
greenlighted the CDU/CSU-SPD coalition.