The EU Commission has already announced that its proposal for the next Multi
Annual Framework 2021-2027 will likely exhaust the legal ceiling for the EU
budget of 1.2% of EU-GNI (compared to currently 1% of GNI).
With the UK leaving the EU, this would result in an increase to EUR 150 bn p.a. Versus EUR
147 bn currently2. While this does not appear to be much it needs to be born in
mind that the post-Brexit budget has to be financed without the EU’s second
largest economy (see chart). Keeping the budget at 1% of EU27 GNI (i.e.
Without UK) would lead to a substantial drop of the EU’s budget to EUR 123 bn
annually. But it can be assumed that there have been supporting signals from
Berlin for raising the budget towards the 1.2% ceiling beforehand. The rise in
(gross) contributions to the EU, however, is not accounted for in the budgetary
planning of the new government.
Following Brexit, we estimate the German share in EU members’ national gross budget contributions to rise from currently
around 21% to 25% which might sum up to additional spending of around EUR
7bn towards the end of the grand coalition’s term.