The outlook for German exports remains extremely challenging on account of
weak global trade due to structural factors, uncertainty regarding the medium-
term relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom, political
developments (such as reforms in China, the US elections, the rising popularity
of populist parties in Europe and political concerns in Turkey), fiercer
competition from emerging countries and the oil-price-related crisis in oil-
German export growth outpaced global trade in 2015 thanks to a weaker euro
and booming US demand. Today, however, German exporters are facing the
doubly negative development associated with weaker demand and a stronger
euro. Our export indicator, which includes both factors, points to a significant
weakening in the growth of German exports to around 3% in 2016.
In the medium term, German exports appear poised to grow by 3.5% to 4%, which
corresponds roughly to the medium-term outlook for global trade.