Roads and rails has recorded high consistent growth rates
On a long-term average (1995 to 2015), the transport of goods on roads and
rails has recorded similarly high growth rates (3% a year). Transport volume on
inland waterways, by contrast, has generally been falling. In general, roads still
account for the lion’s share of the total transport of goods. Road transport
accounted for a little over 73% of total transport volume (excluding pipelines) in
2015.
At 84%, this figure is even higher when it comes to traffic volume (tonnes
transported). In terms of transport volume (tonne-kilometres), railways
accounted for an 18% share in 2015. These figures show that there are clear
limits to shifting goods traffic from roads to the rails, as often advocated by
policymakers. Shifting “just” 25% of transport volume from roads to the rails, for
example, would require doubling rail capacity, something that appears
unrealistic at the present time. Road freight transport continues to offer
advantages in terms of flexibility (e.g. Last-mile distribution and delivery) and
speed. Technological progress also appears likely to continue in road freight
transport.
Autonomous and partly autonomous driving, for example, will
probably gradually go from an utopian vision to reality in the years ahead. In
conjunction with other technological measures, this advancement could
increase the flow of traffic and goods.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18.d:184/nws-01