Negative impact from foreign trade

Domestic industrial
production, for example, grew by only slightly less than 2% in real terms
between 2012 and 2015. We expect to see low growth continue in 2016 and
2017, at 1% and 0.5% respectively. Traditionally, manufacturing has been the
main source of growth for the logistics sector. As a result, industrial production
and turnover in the transportation and storage sector principally tend to follow a
similar pattern.

Slower than usual growth in domestic investment in equipment compared to the
long-term average also had a negative impact on the logistics sector between
2012 and 2015, putting a damper on order intake at logistics companies.
Genuine improvement is not in sight.

Although we expect investment in
equipment to increase by almost 2% in real terms in 2016, equipment
investment is more likely to stagnate next year. We expect the negative impact
of the Brexit decision on domestic investments to materialise largely in 2017.

Furthermore, capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector remains
approximately on par with the long-term average. As a result, it still does not
indicate any substantial additional need for investment by private companies. All
told, companies remain cautious when it comes to investments in expansion,
meaning that this sector of the economy will not play a major role in stimulating
demand for the logistics industry.

As it would appear, economic growth in
Germany (our GDP forecast for 2016: +1.9%; 2017: +1.0%) is largely being
fuelled by private consumption and government expenditure in the current
business cycle.