Conclusion and outlook
Over the next three to five years, global trade is likely to grow only at or around
the same pace as global GDP.
At the very least, a significantly higher growth
rate, as in previous decades, is unlikely. This structurally weaker momentum in
global trade will be also reflected in slower growth in the global and regional flow
of goods, as has already been the case in recent years. In its role as an open,
export-oriented economy, Germany – and the German logistics sector in
particular – will feel the impact of this development. The overall economic
momentum for German GDP growth resulting from (net) exports is likely to
remain low for the time being. The economic prospects for the German logistics
sector will remain less rosy on account of expected modest growth rates in
equipment investment and industrial production in Germany as well as weak
Turnover growth in the sector is likely to be below the long-term
average in the years ahead. Nonetheless, the logistics sector will remain one of
the most important German industries in terms of turnover and employment.