All actors realise that the regulatory stalemate cannot be in the interest of the
car buyers resp.
Drivers, nor is it beneficial to automotive industry. For now,
however, a swift solution is not on the cards, as illustrated by the discussion
about the Blue Badge for cars with relatively low Nox emissions. Granting ban
exceptions to the owners resp. Buyers of these cars, it would take a lot of
pressure off the heated diesel debate. As a consequence, the diesel share’s
decline in the passenger car segment could slow (in the volume segment, the
downtrend is likely to continue anyway in the years ahead, due to the stronger
impact of higher diesel technology costs on sales prices). Without a Blue
Badge, however, cars would be subject to possible driving bans, even though
that is not what the buyers expected when purchasing a diesel. Some drivers of
diesel cars would hence face severe impairments resp. An erosion of their cars’
value.
As older cars, in particular, would not be eligible for a Blue Badge, the
issue would also have socio-political implications, given that older vehicles are
on average driven by low-income households. Upgrades of very old vehicles
would probably be classified as „not justifiable from an economic perspective“.
EU Forecast
euf:ba18.d:200/nws-01